Feb
19
2010
Predicting the Bestsellers
The New York Times is understandably secretive about how they put together their list of bestsellers. All we know is that the list is based on weekly sales reports that come from a number of independent and chain bookstores across the US. Though the Times has not said so explicitly, most people assume that the list is based, at least primarily, on retail rather than wholesale figures. Therefore a book that has massive wholesale orders but few actual purchases should not become a bestseller. Fair enough.
The list of bestsellers has been changed a few times in the past, often to allow certain genres to stop dominating the list. For example, advice books now appear separate from the rest of the non-fiction bestsellers (for which I’m grateful). The editors also occasionally deliberately exclude “catalog” items that are either perennial bestsellers or that are very old but for one reason or another have made their way back onto the list (and the Bible is always excluded since otherwise it would always be #1). The list is geared toward new titles, not older ones.
Interestingly, the updated lists appears on the web a full 9 days before it appears in the print edition of the New York Times Book Review. The list that appears later today will be printed not this Sunday but the Sunday after. Such are the realities of print content versus online content.
Though many people have attempted to crack the formula that decides what books show up on the list, no one has yet mastered it. And I can admit to being completely befuddled. I often try to predict what books will appear based on the list of bestselling products at Amazon and other stores. Sometimes it is very obvious what will appear (if Malcolm Gladwell scribbles on a napkin and slaps it between two covers, people will buy it) but other times there seems to be little way of knowing in advance. I’ll let you know as the year progresses if I’m able to start figuring it out. But for now, I turn to the list every Friday prepared to be completely surprised. And generally I am.